Someone asked who is likely to secure the APC’s Ogun East senatorial ticket; this is my prediction: Since 1999, there has been no clearly documented instance in Nigeria where a sitting governor has lost a senatorial ticket within the same political party to an incumbent senator.
Regardless of the senator’s prior experience, whether as a former governor or a long serving legislator, the sitting governor has almost always secured the party ticket.
The structural advantage governors wield over party machinery and delegates makes this outcome highly predictable. However, it is important to distinguish between party primaries and general elections. While governors typically dominate primaries, there have been notable cases where sitting governors went on to lose senatorial elections.
For instance, Ben Ayade of the All Progressives Congress lost his senatorial bid in 2023 to Jarigbe Agom-Jarigbe of the Peoples Democratic Party. Similarly, Samuel Ortom of the Peoples Democratic Party was defeated by Titus Zam of the All Progressives Congress.
Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of the Peoples Democratic Party also lost his senatorial race to Okechukwu Ezea of the Labour Party.
In Plateau State, Simon Lalong of the All Progressives Congress lost to Napoleon Bali of the Peoples Democratic Party.
This is the political dynamic: Just as it is difficult to unseat a governor, so it is equally difficult to prevent a governor from emerging as a senator, irrespective of his political behaviour or popularity in the primary. From my previous article, “Three Friends…”, Gbenga Daniel has served as governor and a senator, and Amosun has served as governor and senator; it is now the turn of the youngest friend, Dapo, who is currently serving as governor, to become a senator.
This is not only a political twist, but also one of fate and destiny. I know Gbenga Daniel is more popular, but at the present time, it is Dapo’s turn. The chances that Dapo will win the ticket are higher than the chances that he will lose it.
Does that mean OGD cannot contest the senatorial seat against Dapo? My simple answer is no, he can. However, that would have to be in another party. Can he win? I do not see that possibility, although anything is possible in politics.
Politics is about compromise, and the weaker candidate is often sacrificed for the stronger one. Today, Daniel is weaker than Dapo in Ogun State. This is today’s sad reality. Today, there will be no vacancy in Nigeria until 2031. The coast is clear, and the opposition has been reduced to oblivion. If you want to remain relevant in Ogun or Nigerian politics over the next four years, you have to align with the APC.
The political mathematician in Abuja has successfully turned Nigeria into a one party system. The stakes for the Ogun East senatorial ticket are higher if it is not given to Prince Dapo Abiodun than if it is given to Otunba Gbenga Daniel. Let us look at it this way: there is little or nothing the president or the party stands to gain whether it is given to OGD or not.
However, the president and the ruling APC have everything to lose if it is not given to Prince Dapo Abiodun. As a political analyst of over 20 years, I believe the president and the ruling party will look in this direction, not because Prince Abiodun is a political jewel or more popular than OGD, but because he is in charge of the state’s political arsenal.
Contrary to fate, this also puts him, Governor Dapo, ahead of the former governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, who may be the most qualified and popular, but is currently not as politically useful as the incumbent governor.
That said, if the ruling party were to depart from this natural political thinking, it would be the first time such a thing has occurred in Nigeria and, again, it could prove more catastrophic for the party than it would resolve.
*Written by Adedara Oduguwa, Ph.D